Adani Group Stocks Surge Following SEBI Clearance of Stock Manipulation Allegations

On September 19, Adani Group stocks illuminated Dalal Street, surging by as much as 13% following the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) clearance of Gautam Adani and his diversified conglomerate from stock manipulation allegations levied by the U.S.-based short seller Hindenburg Research. This pivotal ruling has effectively lifted a three-year cloud of suspicion that previously erased over $100 billion in market value.

With the regulatory overhang now alleviated, brokerages are rekindling their enthusiasm for the Adani group, as demonstrated by a notable increase in buy ratings across its companies. According to Bloomberg data, analyst sentiment has shifted dramatically in 2023; for instance, Adani Enterprises now boasts three buy calls, a substantial rise from just one at the end of March last year. Similar trends are observed for Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, and Adani Green Energy, reflecting a renewed confidence attributable to recent stock corrections, more reasonable valuations, and ambitious expansion plans beginning to materialize.

Elara Capital has identified airports as the crown jewel within Adani Enterprises’ portfolio. Passenger traffic has reached 94 million in FY25, with projections indicating it could exceed 100 million by FY26, bolstered by the upcoming launch of Navi Mumbai Airport in September 2025.

A substantial tariff hike at Mumbai Airport is expected to enhance EBITDA significantly from this quarter onwards. Management has expressed intentions to demerge and list the airports business by FY27-28, potentially unlocking substantial shareholder value.

Beyond aviation, the roads segment is gaining momentum, with 14 projects under management, six operational, and eight nearing completion. The data center business is also evolving, transitioning into a lucrative model supported by hyperscale contracts. Currently, Adani targets a robust operational capacity expansion, aiming for 150 MW by September 2026 and a staggering 1 GW by FY27.

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Adani Power, designating it an overweight rating with a target price of ₹818, projecting a 30% upside. It heralds the company as one of India's most remarkable corporate turnaround stories, highlighting its resolution of regulatory challenges and a series of value-accretive acquisitions. As India's largest independent power producer, Adani Power holds an 8% share in both coal capacity and generation, with expectations to expand market share to 15% by FY32.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has transitioned from a traditional port operator to a fully integrated transport and logistics platform. Revenue and earnings growth forecasts are promising, with estimated annual cargo growth of around 10%. Analysts predict sustained outperformance, reiterating a buy rating and setting a target price of ₹1,700.

Adani Green is also in the spotlight, with Jefferies maintaining a buy rating and a target price of ₹1,300. The company has outlined aggressive plans to scale its capacity from 14 GW in FY25 to 50 GW by 2030, with a focus on improving its net debt-to-EBITDA metrics.

While Adani Total Gas Ltd. remains focused on city gas distribution, the company is diversifying into biogas production and electric vehicle charging infrastructure, aligning with India's long-term clean energy goals. Plans for significant capital expenditure are underway to support this expansion.

In the cement sector, ACC and Ambuja Cements are also positioned for growth, with strong demand projections and strategic cost management initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability. The overall sentiment surrounding the Adani Group is increasingly bullish, with analysts reporting significant upgrades in ratings and target prices across the conglomerate's diverse portfolio.