Aluminium Production Risks Due to Petroleum Coke Shortages
Petroleum coke shortages from the Strait of Hormuz closure pose a significant threat to global aluminium production. JP Morgan forecasts a potential deficit of 2 million tonnes in the aluminium market by 2026, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Theia Market Signal Identification - AI AssistedJP Morgan's report indicates that disruptions in petroleum coke supply could severely impact aluminium production outside the Gulf region. Approximately 20% of global petroleum coke supply is jeopardized due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, affecting operational capabilities of aluminium producers globally.
The firm projects a deficit of around 2 million tonnes in the aluminium market by 2026, compounded by existing shipping route disruptions. The petroleum coke sector, including both calcined and green varieties, is currently experiencing supply tightness as production may resume faster than aluminium smelting, which could take 12-18 months. Supply-demand mismatches may arise even if geopolitical tensions subside.
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