Decline of New Zealand's Industrial Employment Linked to Māui Gas Field Closure
The Māui gas field's decline has significantly impacted industrial employment across four New Zealand towns. Real electricity prices have doubled since 1998, affecting manufacturing sectors reliant on affordable energy.
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By 2024, the share of natural gas in New Zealand's electricity generation declined to 8% from a peak of 24.6% in 2001, leading to a substantial impact on industrial employment in four towns: Kawerau, Tokoroa, Whangārei, and Bluff. Real industrial electricity prices for basic metals rose 127% and for wood, pulp, and paper by 91% from 1998 to 2025.
As a result, Kawerau lost 46% of manufacturing jobs, while Tokoroa saw a 33% reduction. The closure of the Norske Skog Tasman mill and restructuring at Kinleith highlight the challenges faced. The recent contracts for Tiwai Point smelter offer some stability until 2044, but overall, the post-Māui energy regime has not allowed for competitive viability of these industries.
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