Electricity Price Gap in Sweden Expected to Narrow by 2026

In 2025, the electricity price difference between northern and southern Sweden has been significant, with low prices in SE1 and SE2 and much higher prices in the south. This gap is projected to shrink to around 30 öre per kilowatt-hour in 2026, down from nearly 50 öre in the previous year.

Factors contributing to higher prices in northern Sweden include more normal water reservoir levels after an exceptionally wet 2025 and the new Aurora connection to Finland, which facilitates electricity exports. Meanwhile, mild winter weather and a weak economy are keeping prices low, with reduced industrial demand in Europe easing fuel prices and minimizing the risk of sharp price increases in Sweden.

After early spring, electricity consumption is expected to decrease while solar power increases, leading to more stable prices throughout the year. Long-term forecasts indicate a gradual upward pressure on electricity prices due to industrial electrification, new data centers, and rising societal electricity use outpacing the development of new base power.