Global EV Transition Faces Insurmountable Environmental and Humanitarian Challenges

The U.S. aims for 56% of new car sales to be electric by 2032, with California targeting 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2035. Similarly, the EU will ban CO2-emitting vehicles post-2035. However, achieving a global conversion to EVs is deemed physically impossible due to inadequate mineral supplies and processing capacities.

The production of 1.5 billion EVs would require vast quantities of lithium, cobalt, and nickel, with cobalt being a critical constraint due to limited reserves. Recycling capacity is also insufficient, compounding these challenges.

Furthermore, dependence on Chinese processing for key minerals creates vulnerabilities in the supply chain. The mining and manufacturing processes generate significant carbon emissions, undermining the environmental benefits of EVs.

The humanitarian implications are severe, particularly in cobalt mining regions like the DRC, where child labor and unsafe conditions prevail. The proposed transition could exacerbate existing environmental degradation and social issues.