IAEA Raises Nuclear Capacity Forecast, Predicting Significant Growth by 2050

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has significantly revised its projections for global nuclear capacity, forecasting an increase of 2.6 times from 377 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 992 GW by 2050 in its high case scenario. This adjustment was unveiled by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi during the opening of the IAEA's general conference in Vienna, marking the fifth consecutive year of upward revisions in capacity estimates.

As of the end of 2024, there are currently 417 operational nuclear reactors, contributing to the existing global capacity of 377 GW. An additional 62 reactors, with a combined capacity of 64.4 GW, are under construction, while 23 reactors, totaling 19.7 GW, remain in suspended operation.

Notably, the IAEA also updated its low case projection, now anticipating a 50% increase to 561 GW by 2050. The substantial difference between the high and low scenarios hinges on the anticipated role of small modular reactors (SMRs); the high case expects SMRs to contribute 24% of new capacity, whereas the low case projects only 5%.

These projections indicate a growing global consensus on the vital role of nuclear energy in achieving clean, reliable, and sustainable energy. Grossi underscored that national policies endorsing investment and workforce development, in addition to regulatory collaboration and global harmonization, are essential to realizing the high case scenario.

Jessica Callen Kovtunova, an energy planner and economist at the IAEA, highlighted an increasingly favorable climate for investment, driven by demand from technology companies and rising electricity needs. Multilateral development banks, including the World Bank, are also beginning to support the extension of existing nuclear plants' operational lifetimes and the advancement of modular reactors.

However, the IAEA cautioned that achieving the high scenario would require an average addition of 26 GW of new capacity annually, a stark contrast to the 5.9 GW per year added over the past five years. Total electricity production across all energy sources rose by approximately 3.4% in 2024, with nuclear power generation increasing by 2.8%. Despite this growth, nuclear's share of total production decreased slightly to 8.7%.

The report emphasizes the necessity of extending the operational lifetimes of current reactors, with about two-thirds of nuclear capacity in operation for over 30 years and 40% for more than 40 years. Extending the lifespan of existing plants is deemed the most cost-effective method for producing low-emission electricity, particularly in regions with aging nuclear infrastructures.

In the high scenario, it is assumed that most nuclear reactors will see their lifetimes extended, leading to only 81 GW of the 2024 capacity being retired by 2050. Conversely, the low case anticipates a greater number of retirements, with 156 GW expected to cease operation, resulting in net capacity additions of 184 GW by 2050.

The IAEA forecasts that the most substantial increases in capacity will occur in Central and Eastern Asia, projecting a 15% rise in total electrical generation by 2030 and a remarkable 45% by 2050. In the high case, nuclear capacity is expected to grow to 3.5 times the current level, while in the low case, it is projected to reach 2.6 times the 2024 capacity.