Morocco Prepares for Potential Drought with El Niño's Expected Return in Summer 2026

Morocco faces the potential return of El Niño as early as summer 2026, with a 60-62% probability noted by meteorological organizations. This could reverse recent hydrological recovery and reignite drought conditions. Current reservoir levels are at 70.7% after winter rains, but a 20-30% long-term reduction in water inflows is anticipated by 2050. The situation is exacerbated by climate change, challenging Morocco's water security initiatives.

Published Mar 24, 2026

Morocco is preparing for a potential return of El Niño, expected between June and August 2026, with a 60-62% probability reported by the World Meteorological Organization and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests a 98% chance of at least a moderate event.

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Following a wet winter, reservoir levels are at 70.7%, but a new dry cycle could reverse this recovery. The Mediterranean basin is highly sensitive to drought, with projections indicating a 20-30% reduction in water inflows by 2050. Morocco's water security investments, including desalination and a national water highway, will be tested.