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The New START treaty, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control agreement, expired on February 5. Its end raises challenges for future arms negotiations, particularly due to Russia's violations of previous agreements and demands for the inclusion of the UK and France.

A significant barrier is China's growing nuclear stockpile, projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, which complicates U.S. arms control efforts. The U.S. may need to prioritize nuclear deterrence in its defense budget and consider bilateral space security exchanges with China to mitigate risks. Renewed discussions with Russia could differ, as its space capabilities are declining, posing different strategic challenges.