New START Treaty Expiration Opens Path for Future Arms Control Negotiations Involving China
The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired on February 5, marking the end of a significant arms control era. Discussions for a new treaty are complicated by Russia's past violations, its strategic systems, and China's expanding nuclear arsenal. The U.S. may need to increase its defense budget for nuclear deterrence and engage in bilateral space security exchanges with both China and Russia. The dynamics of these discussions are influenced by the need for broader strategic stability in space.
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The New START treaty, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control agreement, expired on February 5. Its end raises challenges for future arms negotiations, particularly due to Russia's violations of previous agreements and demands for the inclusion of the UK and France.
A significant barrier is China's growing nuclear stockpile, projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, which complicates U.S. arms control efforts. The U.S. may need to prioritize nuclear deterrence in its defense budget and consider bilateral space security exchanges with China to mitigate risks. Renewed discussions with Russia could differ, as its space capabilities are declining, posing different strategic challenges.
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