Ukraine Faces $1 Billion Export Loss in Q1 Due to Russian Shelling of Ports
Ukraine's exporters are projected to incur losses of up to $1 billion in Q1 2026 due to increased Russian shelling of ports, according to Deputy Governor Volodymyr Lepushynskyi. Despite an anticipated 17% growth in exports and a manageable payment deficit supported by international financing, risks remain, as previous forecasts for Q4 2025 fell short by $150 million. Efforts to redirect shipments via rail to Europe and restore transport capacities through seaports are underway to support agricultural and metallurgical exports.
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Ukraine's exporters may lose up to $1 billion in exports in Q1 2026 due to intensified Russian shelling of ports and industrial infrastructure, according to Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine. While exports are expected to grow by 17% and imports by 6%, the trade balance will remain in deficit, primarily due to increased defense and energy-related import spending.
The payment deficit is seen as manageable with reliable financing from international partners. However, risks to exports persist, as Q4 2025 saw $150 million less in expected exports, leading to redirection of some shipments via rail to Europe. Current forecasts assume a gradual restoration of transport capacities through seaports to facilitate the export of agricultural and metallurgical products.
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