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Ukraine's exporters may lose up to $1 billion in exports in Q1 2026 due to intensified Russian shelling of ports and industrial infrastructure, according to Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine. While exports are expected to grow by 17% and imports by 6%, the trade balance will remain in deficit, primarily due to increased defense and energy-related import spending.

The payment deficit is seen as manageable with reliable financing from international partners. However, risks to exports persist, as Q4 2025 saw $150 million less in expected exports, leading to redirection of some shipments via rail to Europe. Current forecasts assume a gradual restoration of transport capacities through seaports to facilitate the export of agricultural and metallurgical products.