Article

New ammonia production in the US Gulf Coast is expected to support domestic demand and affect global prices, creating a surplus in the first quarter of 2026. The Gulf Coast Ammonia plant in Texas City, Texas, is increasing production, with a capacity of 1.2 million metric tonnes per year, and is anticipated to begin commercial operations in early 2026.

Woodside Energy's facility in Beaumont, Texas, with a capacity of 1.1 million tonnes per year, is also expected to ramp up production by late 2025. The USDA forecasts 95 million acres of corn planted this spring, supporting nitrogen fertilizer use, although this is a decrease from 2025/2026 forecasts.

The new production may pressure ammonia prices, with the December Tampa settlement holding at $650 per tonne. Concerns about the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism may impact US export viability. US Gulf Coast producers have exported over 1.1 million tonnes in 2025, with expectations of increased exports in 2026.