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Fitch Ratings expects the Armenian government to meet its 4.5% budget deficit target in 2026 but forecasts deficits above the medium-term target of 3.5% starting in 2027. The 2025 deficit is estimated at 5.0% of GDP.

Armenia's 2026 budget includes a 4.5% deficit, reduced defense spending, and increased healthcare funding. The cumulative deficit for January-October 2025 reached 2.1% of projected annual GDP, with significant realization in October. The Finance Minister plans to reduce the deficit to 3.5% in 2027, 2.8% by 2028, and 1% by 2030.