IEA Revises Downward Hydrogen Electrolyser Capacity Growth, Impacting Platinum Demand
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its hydrogen electrolyser capacity growth downward, deferring many pre-2030 projects to post-2030, which is expected to reduce platinum demand from electrolysis by 12% from 2026 to 2030. Despite a 9% increase in the total number of hydrogen projects anticipated by 2040, challenges such as high costs and regulatory uncertainty persist, leading to a shift towards alkaline technology that does not utilize platinum group metals. The World Platinum Investment Council projects cumulative electrolysis capacity to reach 225 GW by 2040, significantly below the IEA's earlier estimate of 1,100 GW.
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The International Energy Agency's (IEA) annual outlook indicates a downward revision in hydrogen electrolyser project timelines, with many pre-2030 projects deferred to post-2030. Consequently, platinum demand from electrolysis is projected to be 12% lower from 2026 to 2030, reaching 172 koz per annum by 2030.
While the total number of hydrogen projects expected by 2040 has increased by 9% and cumulative electrolyser capacity by 8%, average project sizes have decreased by 1%. Despite growing ambitions for green hydrogen, challenges such as high costs and regulatory uncertainty persist.
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects total cumulative electrolysis capacity to reach 225 GW by 2040, a 6% increase from 2024, but significantly below the IEA's 1,100 GW projection. A shift towards alkaline technology, which does not use platinum group metals, will further affect platinum demand.
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