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In April 2025, India declared the Indus Waters Treaty 'in abeyance' after a terror attack, shifting water discourse to strategic leverage. The Eurasia Group's 'Top Risks 2026' Report identifies this as a global political risk, threatening Pakistan's food security.

India has manipulated river flows and accelerated development of hydroelectric projects on the Chenab, violating treaty norms. The Court of Arbitration affirmed the treaty's validity, emphasizing that political grievances cannot justify weaponizing water. Concurrently, India rejected China's claim over Shaksgam Valley, deeming the 1963 Pakistan-China agreement illegal and asserting its territorial rights.