Indonesian Gas Society Launches 2025 White Paper on Unlocking Indonesia's Gas Potential

On September 17, 2025, the Indonesian Gas Society (IGS) launched its much-anticipated 2025 White Paper, titled "Bridging the Next Gas Wave: What Will It Take to Unlock Indonesia's Gas Potential." This comprehensive document serves as a strategic roadmap, underpinned by data, aimed at reinforcing the national gas ecosystem. It addresses critical facets such as supply and demand, infrastructure development, and pricing policies, aligning with the country’s objectives for a low-carbon energy transition.

Natural gas is poised to remain a vital component of Indonesia's energy landscape, coexisting with renewable sources. During the launch event at the Pullman Hotel in Thamrin, Jakarta, Daniel S. Purba, an advisor to IGS, highlighted the necessity for efficient upstream and downstream operations, the reinforcement of LNG pipeline networks, regulatory certainty, and the acceleration of low-carbon technologies.

The demand for natural gas is projected to rise consistently, with Java and Sumatra continuing to account for 70% of national consumption. According to Rystad Energy, domestic gas consumption is expected to escalate from 3,630 mmscfd in 2025 to 4,830 mmscfd by 2035, bolstered by industrial and electricity sectors. Post-2045, consumption is anticipated to stabilize at around 5,700 mmscfd.

However, challenges loom over the balance between supply and demand. As natural gas production faces declines from existing fields, significant projects such as the Idd Abadi LNG and Andaman are expected to enhance output from 4,970 mmscfd in 2027 to 7,500 mmscfd by 2032, contributing nearly half of the national output by 2050. Meanwhile, regasification capacity is projected to fall short by the mid-2030s, with demand likely exceeding national regasification capabilities as early as 2035.

Regulatory frameworks concerning gas pricing, which have been in place since 2020 and extended through 2029, pose additional concerns. Rising international LNG prices create risks for domestic buyers. In an effort to maintain energy security, the government has redirected LNG cargoes to domestic markets, while legislative initiatives aim to ensure that 60% of upstream production remains available for domestic consumption.

Infrastructure projects are critical for enhancing connectivity within the gas supply chain. The Dumai-Sei Mangkei-Dusem pipeline is slated for construction in 2025, with operations expected to commence in 2027 to facilitate gas distribution from Andaman to Sumatra, although potential bottlenecks in the Belawan corridor warrant careful monitoring.

To navigate these challenges, the White Paper advocates for a series of tactical solutions. These include optimizing the supply chain through commodity aggregation, integrating pipelines with regasification terminals, and developing biomethane and carbon capture technologies. It calls for a robust regulatory framework that accelerates infrastructure development through public-private partnerships, fosters collaboration among LNG importers, and streamlines the permitting process to enhance efficiency and maintain safety standards.

By addressing these pressing issues, the IGS's White Paper outlines a pathway for Indonesia to achieve energy independence and resilience, ensuring that natural gas remains a cornerstone of the nation’s energy strategy amid the evolving landscape of global energy demands.