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Japan's former defense minister Morimoto Satoshi reported that leaked documents suggest Xi Jinping considered a military attack on Taiwan after the 2024 Third Plenary Session but was halted by purged military chief Zhang Youxia. U.S. intelligence indicates Xi directed military preparations for potential action by 2027.

If the documents are authentic, they challenge the view that Xi would deprioritize direct military action due to high costs. Morimoto outlined two potential outcomes: increased military action likelihood or a shift to non-military tactics targeting Taiwan's youth, particularly ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. Recent CCP communications emphasize covert influence operations rather than open military threats.