J.P. Morgan Raises Long-Term Copper Price Forecast to $5.50 Amid Worsening Supply Deficit
J.P. Morgan has increased its long-term copper price forecast by 9.1% to $12,000 per tonne due to worsening supply deficits and rising capital costs. The global copper market deficit is expected to reach 2 million tonnes by 2030 and up to 8 million tonnes by 2035. Argentina is highlighted as a key growth area for copper supply, with significant projects under development. Global copper consumption is projected to grow by 3% annually, driven by electrification and renewable energy demands.
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J.P. Morgan has raised its long-term copper price forecast to $12,000 per tonne, or $5.50 per lb., citing structural supply deficits and increased capital costs. The global copper market deficit is projected to reach 2 million tonnes by 2030 and potentially 8 million tonnes by 2035.
Argentina is identified as a crucial source of supply growth, with key projects from companies like McEwen Mining and Glencore. Global copper consumption is expected to grow by 3% annually, supported by electrification and renewable energy. Supply disruptions have already shifted the market from surplus to deficit, intensifying competition for capital investment in new copper supply.
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