Moody's Revises Trinidad and Tobago's Economic Outlook to Negative Amid Forex Reserve Concerns

Moody's has downgraded Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook from stable to negative due to concerns over falling foreign exchange reserves, which have decreased from approximately US$11 billion in early 2015 to about US$4.6 billion in October 2025. The Finance Minister criticized this decision as premature, arguing it occurred before new fiscal measures could take effect.

Economist Dr. Vaalmikki Arjoon noted that the credit rating itself remains unchanged, but the outlook signals that the rating is under review. He attributed declining reserves to reduced natural gas production and suggested prioritizing smaller gas fields to enhance forex inflows.

The Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, currently at US$6.4 billion, and the positive Net International Investment Position of US$7.5 billion, were highlighted as critical factors for economic stability. Business leaders call for urgent measures to improve the economy, including diversifying the SME sector and addressing forex challenges.