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The New Zealand Institute of Forestry (NZIF) warns that while the Government's January 2026 amendment to the Second Emissions Reduction Plan provides policy clarity, it also increases delivery risks for the latter half of the decade. The amendment indicates that on-farm agricultural emissions pricing will not proceed by 2030, shifting reliance to market and technology-led approaches.

Despite projections showing New Zealand is on track for its first and second emissions budgets, it is off track for the third budget and the 2030 biogenic methane target. NZIF emphasizes that the removal of certain policy levers without proven alternatives raises risks, as higher agricultural production may offset emissions reductions. The organization urges the Government to demonstrate real-world uptake of mitigation technologies, provide long-term investment signals, maintain confidence in the emissions trading system (ETS), and address uncertainties surrounding forestry's role in emissions management.