Potential Scenarios for Belarus' Role in the Ukraine Conflict
Four scenarios outline Belarus' potential involvement in the Ukraine conflict, ranging from militarization to direct aggression. Understanding these scenarios is critical for NATO and regional stability.
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Belarus may face four scenarios regarding its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. The first scenario suggests that Russia could compel Belarus to engage in the war by opening a northern front, contingent on Moscow's desire to prolong the conflict.
Alternatively, Belarus could strengthen its militarization as a deterrent without direct engagement, signaling its capability to manage threats from both Russia and NATO. A third scenario involves Belarus signaling its defense of the Suvalki corridor amidst potential Baltic conflicts, while the least likely scenario is a joint Belarus-Russia attack on Poland, which poses high risks for Russia. Limited provocations in the Baltic region could test NATO's readiness to respond.
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