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The global upstream oil and gas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is expected to cool down in 2026, with activity projected to fall below 2025 levels despite nearly $152 billion in available opportunities as of January, according to Rystad Energy. North America is anticipated to remain a key hub for upstream M&A, driven by a new phase of consolidation among small to mid-cap U.S. shale producers.

National Oil Companies (NOCs) from the Middle East, Asia, and South America are expected to be more active, seeking greater scale and international exposure. In 2025, global upstream M&A activity declined by 17% year-on-year to approximately $170 billion, with a 12% drop in the number of transactions.

Significant trends included consolidation among North American shale producers and large investments in LNG projects. The current investment opportunity portfolio stands at $55 billion, including a potential $23.5 billion sale of Santos and $17 billion for Lukoil's international upstream assets.