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The UK and Australia aim to develop SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact, with delivery expected from the late 2030s and construction in South Australia. However, retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias warns of the UK's submarine service's poor condition, predicting the US may provide used Virginia-class submarines if UK-Australia efforts falter.

Mathias states that the Australian Department of Defence underestimated the Royal Navy's industrial shortfalls and readiness issues, which could lead to the initiative's collapse. The SSN-AUKUS is designed to replace the retiring Astute-class submarines, but management challenges and a lack of experienced personnel are significant obstacles. Currently, only one of the UK's six nuclear-powered submarines is operational, raising concerns about the program's future.