UK Aviation Sector Risks Missing 2% SAF Blend Target Amid Growing Supply Capacity
The UK may miss its 2025 target of a 2% blend of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in jet fuel, with current blends at approximately 1.6%. Although SAF supply is projected to grow significantly, with domestic production limited primarily to the Phillips 66 Humber refinery and about 90% of supply being imported, the country faces challenges in meeting future demand amid ambitious SAF mandates.
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The UK is at risk of missing its 2025 target of a 2% blend of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in jet fuel, marking the first year of its SAF mandate. The policy envisions a phased approach, aiming for 3.6% in 2026, 10% by 2030, and 22% by 2040.
Initial data shows a SAF blend of approximately 1.6% from January to early October 2025, indicating potential shortfalls. The SAF supply has grown from 1,670 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to an expected 5,650 bpd in 2024, already exceeding the required 2% blend.
However, about 90% of the UK's SAF supply is imported, with only the Phillips 66 Humber refinery producing SAF at scale. The UK’s SAF project pipeline is technologically diverse, with total capacity expected to reach 23,000 bpd by 2030. Despite expected advancements, the UK will remain reliant on imports to meet future demand due to the gap between projected domestic capacity and mandated requirements.
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