U.S. Air Force to Select Two Launch Providers for National Security Space Launch Program Amid Market Challenges
The U.S. Air Force plans to select two out of four companies for its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program to provide five years of launches. The push aims to increase affordability by leveraging commercial launch technologies. However, historical market volatility and a projected decline in commercial launch opportunities raise concerns about the viability of commercial providers without stable government contracts. A RAND report supports limiting NSSL contracts to two providers, forecasting only moderate growth in the heavy lift market over the next decade.
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The U.S. Air Force will choose two companies from four candidates for its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program to ensure five years of launch services. The program aims to improve affordability by utilizing commercial capabilities.
However, the commercial launch market faces challenges, with expected launches dropping from 20-25 to 10-15 per year, driven by increased competition and reduced profit margins. A RAND report commissioned by the Air Force supports the decision to limit contracts to two providers, indicating the market cannot sustain more. The contracts, expected to be awarded in summer 2026, will cover over 30 heavy lift launches from 2022 to 2026.
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