Analysts Warn of Gas Price Surge in Europe Amid Qatar LNG Supply Disruption

Energy analysts predict a significant rise in natural gas prices in Europe if LNG imports from Qatar remain stalled for another three months. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to conditions reminiscent of the 2022 energy crisis, with potential gas prices soaring to 155 euros/MWh from the current 50 euros/MWh. A three-month halt could remove 21 million tons of LNG from the global market, impacting European storage levels severely. The European Commission has urged member states to replenish gas reserves earlier to avoid price spikes and supply issues.

Published Mar 28, 2026

Analysts project that natural gas prices in Europe could rise sharply if LNG imports from Qatar are halted for three months, potentially reaching 155 euros/MWh. A continuation of the Middle Eastern conflict may echo the energy crisis of 2022.

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Current European storage levels are below the 5-year average, with Germany and the Netherlands showing critical shortages. The European Commission is advising member states to replenish gas reserves earlier than usual, aiming for 90% storage by November. If disruptions last six months, prices could exceed 200 euros/MWh, severely compromising Europe's ability to stockpile gas for winter.