Asia's Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production to Reach 1.6 Million mt/year by 2026 Amid Limited Local Demand

Asia's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity is projected to reach 1.6 million metric tons per year by 2026, while mandated demand is only 380,500 mt/year. This disparity is expected to leave the region structurally long in SAF through at least 2030.

Current policies in Asia are mostly voluntary, with Singapore targeting a 1% SAF use by 2026, South Korea planning a 1% blending mandate from 2027, and Japan aiming for 10% SAF by 2030. China, the largest aviation market in the region, has a modest SAF consumption target of 50,000 mt by 2025.

Despite this, Asia's SAF output is anticipated to grow by 33% year-on-year, primarily directed towards Europe, where binding mandates are stronger. Companies like DHL are driving early SAF adoption with decarbonization commitments, while SAF prices have increased in response to EU mandates.