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Qatar's banking sector is predicted to experience a decline in the cost of risk by 2027, with estimates of 70-80 basis points, driven by a strong economy and favorable funding conditions for corporates, according to Standard & Poor's (S&P). The North Field Expansion project is expected to boost LNG production by 32% by 2027, contributing to a projected average real GDP growth of 5% from 2026-28.

S&P anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in H2 2026, which the Qatar Central Bank will likely follow, leading to a slight decrease in banks' net interest margins. Profitability is expected to decline to a return on assets of 110 basis points in 2026-27.

The non-performing loans ratio is forecasted to fall to 3.4% in 2026-27, supported by the largest banks' stable asset quality. Direct exposure to climate-sensitive sectors is about 6% of total loans as of November 2025, with Qatar positioned to manage the transition from fossil fuels effectively.